PREFALIM

To achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, we must both drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase levels of carbon storage. PREFALIM will determine how both these tasks could be achieved via changes in consumer behaviours and food preferences. To a large extent, research into strategies for mitigating climate change have ignored the potential effects of changing consumer food preferences. However, consumer preferences seemingly hinder sought-after shifts in crop and livestock production. They also stymie the implementation of carbon pricing by governments, a policy instrument that increases food prices, significantly affecting consumer well-being. Its large redistributive effects hurt the poorest consumers, and its use could potentially have negative political repercussions. However, consumer well-being might suffer significantly less if consumer preferences shift towards lower-carbon diets. PREFALIM will tackle this research question by first exploring the links between consumer food preferences and environmental concerns and then identifying how public policies could better align the two. The project will determine how changes in consumer food preferences could affect a number of factors: demand for food products, the food production industry, the supply of crops and livestock, land-use patterns, and the environment. It is also crucial to understand how much flexibility exists in consumer food preferences if we want to assess how the transition to decarbonised diets could affect consumer well-being and the redistributive effects of carbon pricing. To attain its scientific objectives, PREFALIM will eliminate several conceptual and empirical barriers that constrain our ability to model demand for food and agricultural production, measure consumer well-being, and conduct biophysical modelling of environmental impacts. The project will simultaneously apply various quantitative methods and models to data collected at different spatiotemporal scales: from household-level observations in France over recent years to national-level observations from multiple countries over recent decades. The overarching goal is to analyse how consumer food preferences could influence the decarbonisation of the food industry across a variety of policy scenarios. PREFALIM will also perform analyses to (1) ascertain the sensitivity of the results to variation in economic and demographic conditions across the world and (2) characterise the environmental and socioeconomic risks. At the national level, the project’s findings will help clarify the cost-effectiveness of different policy options that target consumer preferences and of increasing the price of carbon, as recommended by the Quinet Report (2019) and France’s National Low-Carbon Strategy. At the international level, the project’s findings will help shape European and global public policies, such as those related to the Green Deal's climate objectives and the international agreements arising from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (e.g., COP 28 United Arab Emirates: Declaration on sustainable agriculture, resilient food systems, and climate action). Additionally, PREFALIM will seek out means of mitigating food-related inequalities, which are on track to grow within and among countries.