The first Policy Brief of the PREFALIM project

A warm thank‑you to Christophe Gouel for his contribution, which analyses the role of agricultural markets in adaptation to climate change.

Drawing on an empirical modelling study published this year, this Policy Brief examines how climate‑induced yield changes affect:

land use,

production levels,

and ultimately the prices of agricultural commodities traded globally.

One of the key insights: when assessing the consequences of climate change, accounting for price adjustments is essential. International markets redistribute the winners and losers of climate change in favour of exporting countries—an insight often overlooked in analyses that focus solely on impacts on agricultural production.

We hope this document will help inform discussions and decisions on agricultural and trade adaptation policies.